Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.
Brad is 100-53 for the season, including the postseason, and we have 11 picks total on this podcast. Let’s go in the order you gave them to me, not necessarily the order you’d bet them.
We start with Over 3.5 Rams to have a rushing attempt, minus-255.
Brad: Sean McVay said Darrell Henderson is going to play and I believe him. So if he gets a carry, that’s one. We know Stafford’s going to get one. Cam Akers and Sony Michel are four. And almost always run some kind of reverse with a wide receiver. So that’s five. Now I know minus-255 is a huge price. I also want to credit Tommy the Hitman for pointing this one out to me.
Next we have Ja’Marr Chase under 6.5 catches, minus-150.
Brad: He’s only done this four of 20 times. Seven catches is a lot of catches for such a home-run hitter. He almost is guaranteed to have a massive game in yardage if he gets to that level and obviously I don’t think he will. I would not touch the yardage prop. Now he’s gone over in three of the last six games, if you want to focus on the recent trend. So it’s probably going to be tight. I would not do five and a half. And I’d rather lay the 150 for 6.5. If you can’t get six and a half, I just wouldn’t do it.
Under 2.5 players to attempt a pass (both teams), minus-170.
Brad: I did the math on this. The Bengals have had one game one where they ran a gadget play. So it’s 1-for- 20 for them. The Rams had three and the punter is actually a threat to throw a pass, which is annoying. This is not a comfortable bet. But when you look at their season trends, there’s an 81% chance that both teams fail to have a non-QB throw a pass. Of course, one of the QBs could get hurt. There’s some chance of that. But I have to think you should be laying minimum minus-300 And I’m laying 170. This is maybe my favorite bet. You have to worry the whole game about a gadget play. But there’s a lot of value here.
Next, Under 13.5 players with a reception, minus-120.
Brad: If you look at each individual prop on this, each team was 6.5 players, even money. So you’re getting a free catch and why is that? Like I say all the time, there will be no ties at our casinos. So the number should be 13 and they make it 13.5 because of no ties. So that’s the value here, the free player with a reception that they’re giving you.
Cooper Kupp most receiving yards for either team, plus-150.
Brad: How in the world am I getting plus-150? I think I’m 90% to win this bet on the Rams side. And look, I’m at least 60% to beat the Bengals receivers. Kupp has done it so consistently. He’s averaging 116 yards per game. That is a high bar for everyone else to clear, all things being equal.
Rams to have the most rushing yards, minus-150.
Brad: I really like this bet. How can this bet lose? Of course any bet can lose but minus-150 is cheap. It’s hard to run on the Rams. I have the favorite. I have multiple players who can actually run the ball for the Rams. I think that we have a team that’s more likely to run the ball if the Bengals play remotely like they did against the Chiefs with a bunch of defensive backs in coverage. And I would be very very surprised if the Bengals with basically just Joe Mixon beat the Rams in rushing. Honestly this bet wins on Sunday at least two out of three times. So we should be minus-200, not minus-150.
Here’s a weird one: Under 23.5 for the jersey number of the player with the first touchdown.
Here’s why I love this bet. It’s not a fun bet. It’s not gimmicky. It’s pure math. We get every single Ram you would want except Sony Michel and the tight ends, who are not likely to score. We get Odell Beckham, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford (if there’s a sneak), Cam Akers. Even Van Jefferson. The Rams are about minus-135 to score first. So the bet should be about minus-135. But then we look at the Bengals and here’s why I really love the bet. You get Joe Burrow. That’s something small, maybe a 3% chance he scores first. But you also get Ja’Marr Chase, who is a massive TD scorer for them. I’m about a 64% favorite. So this should be about minus-170. Anything less than that is edge.
For more of Brad’s Super Bowl picks listen to the full Givin Props Super Bowl podcast here.