WEEK 4: THURSDAY
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (Line: CIN -7.5, O/U: 46)
Among the relevant trends here, the Jaguars are 19-30-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$1,400 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Jacksonville posted subpar ATS marks when playing on the road (10-14-1 … minus-$540) and serving as the betting underdog (15-21-2 … minus-$810).
However, for the month of September, dating back to 2018, the Jaguars have yielded solid ATS marks with overall record (8-6 … $140), playing on the road (4-1 … $290), facing AFC competition (7-5 … $150) and representing the betting underdog (6-3 … $270).
After three weeks of 2021 play, the Jaguars offense ranks among the bottom 15 in four major categories: 18th in rushing offense (103.3 yards per game), 23rd in total offense (averaging 315.0 yards), 27th in passing offense (211.7 yards per game) and 27th in scoring (averaging 17.7 points per week).
Among the relevant trends, the Bengals have endured a mixed bag of ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. The club has a 26-24-1 overall ATS record (minus-$40) and 21-15-1 mark versus AFC teams since 2018 ($450).
Also, Cincinnati has a 4-4 ATS record as the betting favorite (minus-$40), along with 11-13-1 at home (minus-$330). When playing on Thursday nights since 2018, the Bengals are a perfect 2-0 with ATS ($200).
Three weeks into the 2021 season, Cincinnati ranks 17th in rushing offense (104.7 yards per game), 17th in scoring (averaging 22.7 points), 28th in passing offense (189.3 yards per game), and 28th in total offense (averaging 294.0 yards per week).
The Jaguars have eclipsed the Over in just 17 of their last 35 games dating back to the 2019 season (minus-$60). The Bengals own a 16-18-1 record with the Over during the same span of regular-season games (minus-$380). All combined, that’s a 33-34-3 track record with the Over (minus-$440 or, if betting the Under, minus-$230).
In other notable trends, Jacksonville has toppled the Over in each of its last eight games when the opponent averaged fewer than 225 yards passing for the season ($800). Conversely, the Jaguars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals, when Cincinnati’s averaging less than 350 total yards per week (minus-$440). With O/U tallies, the Under has a 7-1 record ($590) when tracking the Bengals’ last eight games of an opponent rushing for more than 100 team yards the week prior.
The Bengals also have an 0-7-1 ATS record from their last eight games against AFC South clubs, when the projected O/U exceeded 40 points (minus-$770).