THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 14
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings
(Line: MIN -3, O/U 43.5)
Among the relevant trends here, the Steelers are 30-27-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $30 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Pittsburgh enjoyed solid ATS marks when playing on the road (15-12-2, $180), facing NFC competition (9-7, $130) and serving as the betting favorite (18-5-1, $1250). The ATS numbers for 2021 are less encouraging, with the Steelers going 5-7 overall (minus-$270), 3-2 on the road ($80), 0-3 versus teams with losing records (minus-$330) and 0-4 against NFC foes (minus-$440). Pittsburgh’s defense has forced the NFL’s fourth-fewest takeaways this season (11). On offense, the Steelers rank 15th in passing offense (238.3 yards per game), 21st in scoring offense (20.3 points per week), 22nd in total offense (325.2 yards per game) and 29th in rushing offense (86.9 ground yards per week).
Factoring in recent trends, the Vikings are 29-30-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$400 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Minnesota endured marginal ATS results as the betting favorite (16-18-1, minus-$380), taking on AFC competition (8-8, minus-$80) and when playing at home (13-15-1, minus-$350). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly mediocre, at 6-6 overall (minus-$60), 2-3 at home (minus-$130) … but also 5-2 versus teams with winning records ($280). Also, Minnesota has a 10-2 ATS mark from the last 12 times it carried a streak of two-plus losses ($780). Entering Week 14, Minnesota has the NFL’s 29th-ranked rush defense, allowing weekly averages of 131.5 ground yards. Conversely, the Vikings offense ranks sixth in total offense (384.9 yards per week), seventh in passing offense (271.7 yards per game), 11th in scoring offense (25.7 points per week) and 15th in rushing offense (113.3 yards per game). Week 13 was the first time all season the Vikings did not lead their opponent by at least a touchdown.
The Steelers have toppled the Over only 17 times in their last 44 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$1160). The Vikings, in turn, have been more successful during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 27-16-1 with the Over ($940). All combined, that’s a 43-42-2 track record with the Over (minus-$320) or, if betting the Under, minus-$530. In 2021, Pittsburgh and Minnesota are 5-7 and 7-5 with the Over for a combined 12-12 (minus-$120). Citing other trends, the Steelers are 7-0-1 with the Over ($700), when tracking the last eight times the weekly opponent passed for 300-plus yards the previous game. Pittsburgh has a 1-9-1 record with the Over (minus-$890) when traveling at least 300 miles for a road matchup. And when chronicling a 24-game sample size, the Vikings are 2-21-1 with the Under when scoring 27 or fewer points the previous week (minus-$2110).