Thursday Night Football Trends: Week 11

Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs for a touchdown during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on November 28, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Image Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

WEEK 11 THURSDAY NIGHT

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons

(Line: ATL +6.5, O/U 47.5)

New England Patriots

Among the relevant trends here, the Ravens are 30-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $30 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New England notched productive ATS marks when playing NFC competition (9-7, $130), facing teams with a losing record (16-8, $720) and kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone (28-20-1, $600). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also encouraging, with the Patriots owning a 6-4 overall record ($160),¬† 3-1 mark on the road ($190) and 4-3 record as the betting favorite ($70). For another notable trend, the Patriots are 8-2 ATS when charting the team’s last 10 games of that weekly opponent scoring 23 or fewer points the previous game ($580). After 10 weeks of play, the Patriots’ balanced offense ranks sixth overall in scoring offense (27.5 points per game), 14th in passing offense (241.7 yards per week), 15th in total offense (356.2 yards per game) and 16th in rushing offense (114.5 ground yards per week). The Patriots the past six games are the most efficient team in the league, measured by yards per point; average is about 15 yards per point and the Patriots are scoring a point every 11 and allowing one every 19. For the year, the Patriots are second in yards allowed per point allowed (18.5); the Falcons D is 32nd (12.6).

Atlanta Falcons

Among the relevant trends here, the Falcons are 24-33 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$1,230 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Atlanta posted subpar ATS marks when playing at home (11-17, minus-$770), taking on AFC competition (6-8, minus-$280) and kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone (17-24, minus-$940). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly deflating, at 4-5 overall (minus-$150), 1-3 at home (minus-$230) and 2-3 as the betting underdog (minus-$130). The only strong data point: 2-0 versus NFC competition ($200). Ten weeks into the season, the Falcons offense ranks 15th overall in passing offense (241.3 yards per week), 25th in total offense (324.2 yards per game), 25th in scoring offense (19.8 points per week) and 29th in rushing offense (82.9 ground yards per game).

Total Trends

The Patriots have toppled the Over just 17 times in their last 42 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$940). Along those lines, the Falcons tallied a 19-22 record with the Over (minus-$520) during the same timeline of regular-season action. All combined, that’s a 36-46-1 track record with the Over (minus-$1460) or, if betting the Under, plus-$640. New England and Atlanta are 5-5 and 5-4 with the Over for a combined 10-9 ($10). Citing other notable trends, the Patriots are 1-9-1 with the following week’s Over (minus-$890), when chronicling the last 11 times in which New England averaged more than 110 rushing yards for a season. Also, the Falcons are 10-0-1 with the Over, when tracking the team’s last 11 times of registering fewer than 150 passing yards the previous game ($1000). Conversely, Atlanta has lost its last nine outings with the Over, when the weekly opponent possessed an ongoing winning streak of four-plus games (minus-$990).