SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 8
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
(Line: MIN -3, O/U: 52.5)
Among the relevant trends here, the Cowboys are 29-25 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $150 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Dallas enjoyed solid ATS marks when kicking off in the Central Time Zone (18-12, $480) and representing the betting underdog (14-8, $520). The 2021 ATS numbers are also attention-grabbing, with the Cowboys posting perfect tallies with overall record (6-0, $600), serving as the betting underdog (2-0, $200), playing on the road (3-0, $300) and locking horns with NFC opponents (4-0, $400). After seven weeks of play, the Cowboys’ explosive offense ranks first overall in total offense (460.8 yards per game), first in scoring offense (averaging 34.2 points), second in rushing offense (164.3 yards per week) and fifth in passing offense (296.5 yards per game). Not that Dak Prescott (calf) may not play this game.
The Vikings have yielded underwhelming ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For this period, the team has a 26-27-1 overall record (minus-$370), 12-14-1 mark at home (minus-$340) and 20-19-1 record against NFC competition (minus-$90). For the month of October, though, Minnesota has an 8-5-1 ATS mark since 2018 ($250). The 2021 ATS numbers have been a mixed bag, with the Vikings sporting a 3-3 overall record (minus-$30), 1-2 mark at home (minus-$120) and 3-1 versus NFC foes ($190). Citing another notable trend, the Vikings are 7-1 ATS with a weekly opponent, when charting Minnesota’s last eight times of exceeding 450 total yards the previous game ($590). For the season, the Vikings’ balanced offense ranks fifth overall in total offense (414.2 yards per week), sixth in passing offense (286.3 yards per game), eighth in rushing offense (127.8 ground yards per week) and 14th in scoring offense, averaging 24.5 points per game.
The Cowboys have eclipsed the Over in 24 of their last 38 games dating back to 2019 ($860). The Vikings have been similarly stellar with the Over, going 23-14-1 ($760) during the same span of regular-season games. All combined, that’s a 47-28-1 track record with the Over ($1620) or, if betting the Under, minus-$2,370. For 2021, Dallas and Minnesota are 5-1 and 3-3 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 8-4 ($360). Citing other notable trends, the Cowboys are 8-0 with the Over ($800), when chronicling the last eight times Dallas’ weekly opponent rushed for 100-plus yards the previous game. On the flip side, the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS when charting their last five non-Monday matchups against the Vikings (minus-$340). Also, the Vikings are 1-7 with the Under (minus-$670), when chronicling Minnesota’s last eight encounters with the NFC East, while averaging at least three red-zone possessions for that season.