Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers
(Line: SF -4, O/U: 44)
Among the relevant trends here, the Colts are 27-24-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $60 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Indianapolis also enjoyed robust ATS marks when playing on the road (15-10-2, $400), kicking off in the Pacific Time Zone (2-0, $200) and facing NFC opponents (10-3-1, $670). The numbers for 2021 are encouraging, as well, with the Colts tallying a 4-2 overall ATS record ($180), 2-1 ATS on the road ($90) and 2-0 ATS versus opponents with a losing record ($200). After six weeks of play, the Colts offense ranks 11th overall in rushing offense (averaging 124.2 ground yards per week), 15th in total offense (367.5 yards per game), 16th in passing offense (243.3 yards per week) and 19th in scoring offense (23.2 points per week).
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have endured shaky ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 23-30 overall record (minus-$1000), 9-17 mark at home (minus-$970), 8-19 record as the betting favorite (minus-$1290) and an 8-16 ATS mark against teams with a losing record (minus-$970). The only upside: San Francisco has an 8-4 ATS record versus AFC competition since 2018 ($360). In 2021, the Niners are 1-4 ATS overall (minus-$330), 0-2 ATS at home (minus-$220) and 1-3 ATS as the betting favorite (minus-$230). Citing another notable trend, San Francisco has a 7-1 ATS record in its last eight games of the final points total being at 44 or fewer points ($590). BetPrep’s over/under projection for Sunday currently stands at 44. Six weeks into this season, the Niners’ balanced offense ranks 12th overall in rushing offense (122.0 ground yards per game), 14th in passing offense (246.2 yards per week), 14th in total offense (368.2 yards per game) and 17th in scoring offense (23.4 yards per week).
The Colts have surpassed the Over in 21 of their last 38 games dating back to 2019 ($230). The Niners are marginally worse during the same span of regular-season action, posting an 18-18-1 record with the Over (minus-$180). All combined, that’s a 39-35-1 track record with the Over ($50 or, if betting the Under, minus-$790). For 2021, Indianapolis and San Francisco are 3-3 and 2-3 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 5-6 (minus-$160). In other notable trends, the Colts are 9-0 with the Over when tracking the club’s last nine games of traveling at least 1,000 miles ($900). Conversely, Indy’s 2-8 with the Under when chronicling the club’s last 10 games of being the favorite but with an implied win probability of less than 60% (minus-$680). Also, the 49ers are 1-7 with the Over when failing to cover the point spread the previous week (minus-$660).