MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 16
Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints
(Line: NO +2.5, O/U 37.5)
Among the relevant trends, the Dolphins are 35-27 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $530 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Miami produced mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (14-16, minus-$360), kicking off in the Central Time Zone (0-5, minus-$550), but also as the betting favorite (11-7, $330). The 2021 ATS numbers are consistently bland, with the Cowboys going 7-7 overall (minus-$70), 3-3 on the road (minus-$30) and 2-2 versus NFC competition (minus-$20). In other trends, the Dolphins are 11-2 ATS from the last 13 times they averaged more than 225 passing yards per game ($880). However, Miami is 2-8 ATS from its last 10 appearances on Monday Night Football (minus-$680). The Dolphins defense has racked up the ninth-most takeaways through 15 weeks (21 total … 11 INTs, 10 fumbles). The Miami offense ranks 16th in passing offense (228.1 yards per game), 21st in scoring offense (averaging 20.4 points per game), 23rd in total offense (314.7 yards), and just 28th in rushing offense (86.6 yards).
New Orleans Saints
Factoring in recent trends, the Saints are 37-25 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $950 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New Orleans posted strong ATS results when facing AFC opponents (9-7, $130) and representing the betting underdog (13-5, $750). The ATS numbers for 2021 essentially cancel out, at 7-7 overall (minus-$70), 2-4 at home (minus-$240), and 3-1 versus AFC opponents ($190). New Orleans has the league’s No. 5-ranked rush defense, allowing only 96.6 ground yards per game. The Saints offense ranks 15th in rushing offense (117.1 yards), 17th in scoring offense (22.4 points per game), 26th in total offense (311.7 yards), and 30th in passing offense (194.6 yards).
The Dolphins have toppled the Over just 22 times in their last 46 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$440). The Saints have been slightly better during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 24-21-1 with the Over ($90). All combined, that’s a 46-45-1 track record with the Over (minus-$350) or, if betting the Under, minus-$560. In 2021, Miami and New Orleans are both 6-8 with the Over for a combined 12-16 (minus-$560). Citing other trends, the Saints are 7-1 to the Under from the last eight times they passed for less than 200 yards the previous week ($590). On the flip side, New Orleans is 1-6-1 with the Over (minus-$560) when the offense has seasonal averages of less than 0.4 yards per play.