WEEK 5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
(Line: LAC -2.5, O/U: 47)
Among the relevant trends here, the Browns are 24-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$590 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Cleveland posted similarly sluggish ATS marks when playing on the road (12-14, minus-$340), serving as the betting underdog (12-11, minus-$10) or facing AFC competition (14-23-1, minus-$1130). The ATS tallies for October have also been subpar. For that month since 2018, the Browns are 5-7 overall (minus-$270) and 2-5 versus AFC opponents (minus-$350).
In other notable trends, Cleveland has an 8-2 ATS record from its last 10 games of rushing for 125-plus yards the previous week ($580). Conversely, the Browns are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games of being outscored by common opponents by eight or more points (minus-$780).
After four weeks of 2021 play, the Browns offense ranks first overall in rushing offense (177.0 ground yards per game), 11th in scoring offense (25.0 points per week), 12th in total offense (389.3 yards per game) and 26th in passing offense (212.3 yards per week).
Los Angeles Chargers
Among the relevant trends, the Chargers have produced underwhelming ATS marks over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, Los Angeles has a 25-25-2 overall ATS record (minus-$250), 8-17-1 at home (minus-$1070) and 13-18-1 record as the betting favorite (minus-$680).
On the plus side, the Chargers own a 7-3-1 ATS record with October-only games since 2018 ($370), along with a modest 2-0 mark as a 2.5-point favorite since 2018 ($200). Also, Los Angeles owns a 10-1 ATS record from its last 11 games of averaging 24 or fewer points per outing ($890). However, the Chargers are 0-9 ATS from their last nine home games versus AFC North teams (minus-$990).
Four weeks into the 2021 season, the Chargers offense ranks sixth overall in passing offense (averaging 283.5 yards per week), 11th in total offense (391.0 yards per game), 14th in scoring offense (23.8 points per week) and 16th in rushing offense (107.5 yards per game).
The Browns have surpassed the Over in 19 of their last 36 games dating back to the 2019 season ($30). The Chargers, in turn, have just a 16-19-1 record with the Over during the same span of regular-season games (minus-$490).
All combined, that’s a 35-36-1 track record with the Over (minus-$460 or, if betting the Under, minus-$250).